Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3570-1.3820
Euro 1.5990-1.6240
Sterling 1.8330-1.8630
WTI Oil (opening level) $89.21
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3691 ( 0.7304 )
Canada starts the day with the key Consumer Price Index figures for March, which will be closely watched to gauge the inflationary impact of the war in Iran. The data, released by Statistics Canada, is likely to confirm a significant increase in price pressures, driven by higher energy costs.
Market analysts foresee the monthly CPI accelerating 1.1%, more than twice the 0.5% reading seen before the war started in February. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the CPI is expected to have grown at a 2.5% year-on-year rate, from 1.8% in the previous month.
Canada’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 2.25%, at its March 18 meeting, but the monetary policy statement already warned about “increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy", stemming from the US-Iran war. Inflation data for March will corroborate those fears. As these numbers are above the central bank’s 2% inflation target.
Headlines
· US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored orders while leaving Hormuz, while Iran targeted ships and claimed control of the strait, citing US violations of a ceasefire. Hopes for peace have faded despite renewed talks, and the prolonged conflict has triggered a major energy shock, stoking inflation risks and fears of a global slowdown.
· Fed’s Waller said policymakers understand inflation risks and may hold rates if war-driven inflation coincides with weaker jobs. Fed’s Daly said spending remains solid, but the outlook hinges on how long oil prices and the conflict persist.
· Artificial intelligence is increasingly expected to lower Britain’s level of employment during the next decade, according to a poll of executives, with entry-level roles bearing the brunt. Around half of business leaders fear net job losses across the economy, the Accenture research shows, up from a third when the survey took place two years ago.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. and Europe rallied on easing oil fears, while Asia ended mixed as Japan and Korea paused after a strong relief run.
· Volatility: VIX subdued, Hormuz risk, earnings focus
· Digital Assets: BTC steady ETH softer; IBIT leads; ETHA supported
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields rebounded Monday with oil prices, Japan’s yields dropped
· Currencies: US dollar stronger, Japanese yen weaker as oil prices jump Monday
· Commodities: Crude oil rebounds, gold and silver drop amid renewed uncertainty over Iran peace deal.