Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3910-1.4160
Euro 1.6280-1.6530
Sterling 1.8730-1.8980
WTI Oil (opening level) $57.33
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4034 ( 0.7126 )
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a weekly gain of more than 2% and its highest close in three years, lifting the year-to-date gain to 11.6%. The main driver has been another phenomenal week for precious metals, with silver jumping 13% and gold adding 10%. All other sectors except energy (−3.3%) also contributed to the positive outcome, with other strong performers including platinum group metals, coffee, cattle, corn, and wheat.
Gold and silver rose to records as fears about credit quality in the US economy and heightened frictions between Washington and Beijing strengthened demand for havens, with the latest extension being led by the COMEX futures contracts of silver, platinum, and palladium ahead of Sunday’s Section 232 deadline, with a potential—though unlikely—U.S. tariff announcement seen as a catalyst that could drive COMEX premiums sharply higher while tightening the London silver market further, as already imported metals into the U.S. risk being left stranded.
Oil is heading for a third weekly decline with Brent slumping towards USD 60 as investors focus on oversupply and the fallout from renewed US-China trade tensions.
Headlines
· US regional banking woes were reignited after Zions Bancorporation and West Alliance announced bad loans tied to fraud.
· The White House is poised to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, delivering a major win for carmakers. The Commerce Department is expected to announce a five-year extension of an arrangement that allows manufacturers to reduce duties on imported parts, following months of lobbying by Ford and General Motors for relief from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
· USTR's Greer noted China's actions suggest a move towards decoupling, with the US focusing more on rare earths investment. China's Commerce Ministry urged the US to recognize past progress and address recent tensions, attributing them to US restrictions. MOFCOM assured approved civilian rare earth licenses and distinguished export controls from bans. China's Foreign Minister advocated against US decoupling, urging constructive dialogue to resolve issues.
· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled further tightening is likely if confidence in the bank’s economic outlook improves. He will continue gathering information at international meetings and assess data ahead of the 29–30 October decision. Markets assign roughly a 17% chance of a hike this month.
· Trump said he plans a second meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin “within two weeks or so” to seek an end to the war in Ukraine. He voiced optimism about a ceasefire, saying “Alaska set the stage” and “we’ll be successful, save a lot of lives.” High-level staff talks will take place next week ahead of the summit, with the US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. fell on regional-bank stress. Europe rose on staples and earnings. Asia mixed with Hong Kong softer into China’s plenum
· Volatility: VIX surges on U.S. bank fraud fears; SPX pricing ±66pt move; sentiment fragile
· Digital Assets: BTC and ETH dip; IBIT, ETHA see outflows; extreme fear grips market
· Currencies: The Japanese yen and euro rallied versus a mixed US dollar, with USDJPY back below key 150.00
· Commodities: Another phenomenal strong week in precious metals amid strong haven demand
· Fixed Income: US treasuries rallied on weak risk sentiment, sending yields to new three year lows, in the case of the 2-year treasury benchmark