Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.39000-1.4150
Euro 1.6200-1.6450
Sterling 1.8350-1.8600
WTI Oil (opening level) $59.51
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4027 ( 0.7129 )
The crypto market is under pressure with Bitcoin sliding under US $95,000, its lowest level in months, as institutional flows turn negative and risk-on assets soften.
Market volatility is back into view as the S&P 500 dropped roughly 1.6% and the VIX settled around 20, reflecting sharp short-term nervousness. Key triggers include upcoming US retail-sales and producer-price data, plus several Fed speakers, which may reset expectations about rate-cuts and economic strength.
Headlines
· Stock markets fell on Thursday after Fed officials signaled caution about further rate cuts, driving down the odds of a December cut to below 50%. Fed's Musalem advises caution on rate cuts, noting tepid business investment while balancing inflation pressures. Hammack suggests keeping policy restrictive due to inflation concerns despite economic resilience. Kashkari sees inflation at 3% as high, observing labor market pressures and mixed signals, undecided on December rate cuts. Daly rejects raising the 2% inflation target, noting risk balance slightly favors employment.
· Late yesterday, the FT reported that UK Chancellor Reeves and PM Starmer are set to ditch plans to increase income taxes in the new budget to be announced on November 26, impacting the fiscal outlook for the UK and weighing on sterling.
· China's economic activity cooled more than expected at the start of the fourth quarter, with an unprecedented slump in investment and slower growth in industrial output. Fixed-asset investment shrank 1.7% in the first 10 months of the year, and industrial production climbed 4.9% last month from a year earlier, the smallest gain since the start of this year.
· The UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q3 2025, down from 0.3% in Q2 and below the 0.2% forecast. The production sector contracted by 0.5%, with manufacturing down 0.8%, partly due to a cyberattack affecting Jaguar Land Rover. Services grew 0.2%, supported by arts and real estate, while construction output was up 0.1%. Annual GDP rose by 1.3%, slightly below the expected 1.4%.
· Eurozone industrial production rose 0.2% month-on-month in September 2025, recovering from a 1.1% decline in August but missing the expected 0.7% growth. Energy, capital, and intermediate goods rose, while durable and non-durable consumer goods fell.
Key Points
· Equities: AI-led U.S. sell-off as December Fed cut odds drop to a coin toss, Europe slipped from record highs, Asia resilient with Hong Kong at a one-month high
· Volatility: skew tilting toward downside puts
· Digital Assets: Ethereum & major alts under pressure, dominance pattern shifting
· Fixed Income: US treasuries fail to serve as safe haven
· Currencies: USD weaker, failing to serve as a safe haven. GBP weakens to new lows versus EUR.
· Commodities: Wheat and crude jumps on Russian port attack. Broad gains lifts commodities to fresh cycle high