Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3540-1.3790
Euro 1.6000-1.6250
Sterling 1.8580-1.8830
WTI Oil (opening level) $62.53
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3661 ( 0.7320 )
USD/CAD pair holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), maintaining a bearish medium-term bias. The nine-day EMA is flat and convergent with the spot price, pointing to consolidation. Until price reclaims the medium-term average, rallies could fade ahead of resistance.
The pair may fall toward the initial support at 1.3481, the lowest since October 2024, recorded on January 30, followed by the confluence around the lower descending channel boundary at 1.3450 and 1.3419, the lowest since February 2024.
On the upside, the primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3660, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3700. A daily close above the confluence would open recovery scope and support the USD/CAD pair to approach the 50-day EMA at 1.3787. Further advances would expose the nine-week high of 1.3928, reached on January 16.
Headlines
· Canada's Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4 from 48.6 in January, ending an 11-month downturn. Output stabilized, staffing levels saw a slight gain despite marginal new order declines. Input inflation hit a five-month high, prompting higher output charges. Future output confidence rose to a three-month high.
· Trump said he would roll back punitive tariffs on India in return for an agreement that Modi would stop buying Russian oil. Trump said he would cut a US levy on Indian goods to 18% from 25% and remove an extra punitive 25% duty applied in response to India’s purchases of crude from Russia.
· Australia’s Reserve Bank hiked the policy rate 25 basis points Tuesday as a strong majority expected, to take the rate to 3.85%, while proving somewhat cautious on guidance for further hikes. It’s the second major developed market central bank to tighten policy rates after Japan. The Australian dollar jumped higher on the development.
· US ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.6 from 47.9 in January, signaling the first manufacturing expansion in 12 months. Gains were seen in new orders, production, and supplier deliveries. Price pressures remained stable. The rise may be driven by holiday reorders and tariff concerns.
· In January 2026, the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.8, with output growth strong despite a seventh-month decline in export orders due to tariffs. Job growth slowed, costs rose, and selling prices surged, while business confidence remained steady amid risks.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. stocks rose on easing risk sentiment, Europe advanced on firmer growth signals, Hong Kong slid as tech and miners retreated.
· Volatility: VIX eases as short-term stress fades, but macro calendar and rate expectations keep downside hedging in focus.
· Digital assets: Crypto stabilises at lower levels; IBIT inflows contrast with selective Ethereum ETF demand.
· Currencies: USD comeback at pivotal levels near 1.1800 in EURUSD. AUD surge on RBA hike and guidance.
· Commodities: Gold and silver rebound; US natural gas records biggest one-day fall in 30 years.
· Fixed income: US treasury yields rebound as risk sentiment steadies and on strong ISM Manufacturing.